Forecast of Pork supply and demand for Lunar New Year 2024

Context:

The ASF epidemic raged, took place on a large scale, causing great damage to many livestock farmers;
ASF vaccine has been allowed to be circulated and exported but the level of trust is not high, making farmers somewhat reserved and limited use; many testing camps have a circulation of the strange variant; the control of ASF in the future may be more complex and difficult;
The prolonged decline in pig prices, many farmers reduced their herds, hung up barns;
Imports of live pigs and small-scale pork tend to increase, difficult to control in quantity and quality;
Small quota exports to neighboring countries have stalled due to abundant supply in neighboring countries, lower hog prices and production costs in the host country than Vietnam. There are countries planning to establish national food stockpiles;
The amount of pork consumed in many markets decreased by up to 50-60% (unemployment and income decline may persist, the trend of saving after the Covid,... pandemic);
Many farms in the East and Southwest regions had to close due to unsatisfactory breeding conditions, especially environmental problems;
The total pig herd has decreased but not significantly because farmers know how to adapt to ASF, the sow herd has been restructured in the past 2 years quite abundantly and continuously, many new large-scale farm projects have been established and put into operation.

Forecast:

From now until Tet and at least until the second quarter of 2024, the amount of pork in the country is enough for domestic supply, not imports. The price of hogs is also difficult to spike;
Vietnam has a variety of food sources with good nutritional value. Domestic consumers have many food options compared to other countries, especially poultry, shrimp and fish,... There is also a tendency to be cheap due to the decrease in export share, abundant supply due to the ability to re-herd faster than pigs (biological characteristics, many breeds/lines, simple farming conditions with many different sizes/models,...);
The use of cheap, poor quality imported food sources is a common trend for the poor, which can cause poisoning at any time for users. In the long run, it can negatively affect labor and produce strange/dangerous diseases, the most concerning are diseases related to genetic factors;
The ASF epidemic situation continues to be complicated. Breeders need to be cautious. Pigs should not be stocked with stables/systems, set aside multiple barns/camps so that the herd can be expanded, isolated and quickly handled/destroyed the first infected individuals and associated individuals – at high risk/suspected infection.

Related news